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This is the same red car that Kyle Conner tested. License Plates and all match. I'm still holding out hope for it being a pre-production model and the real charging curve on for the Solterra is not that bad.
 

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This is the same red car that Kyle Conner tested. License Plates and all match. I'm still holding out hope for it being a pre-production model and the real charging curve on for the Solterra is not that bad.
I doubt it will be different. Folks said the same thing about Bjorn's test of the "early release" EV6 and Ioniq 5 - which exhibited coldgating (very slow charging when cold) and warmgating (battery charging drops to 1 kW when it nears overheating). Also those Korean EVs suffer from slower charging with AC/heat on because the HVAC is shared with battery. To me... the gold standard in charging is the Audi e-tron. It has a flat 130 kW charging curve (I've seen it in person and was amazed).

Solterra will have slow DC charging on release. The question is can it be improved by software/firmware upgrade like the Mach-E and ID.4?
 

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Solterra will have slow DC charging on release. The question is can it be improved by software/firmware upgrade like the Mach-E and ID.4?
Since no charging tests have been publicized on the Solterra yet, I'm sure software tuning is happening as we speak. Note that the Solterra AC charges in 9 hours vs 11 hours for the bZ4X. We can assume the DC charging will be the same for the two cars. But, I hold out the possibility they can be different, or at least different software tuning for the charging curve. Subaru wants people to drive out to those national parks.鈿
 

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Since no charging tests have been publicized on the Solterra yet, I'm sure software tuning is happening as we speak. Note that the Solterra AC charges in 9 hours vs 11 hours for the bZ4X. We can assume the DC charging will be the same for the two cars. But, I hold out the possibility they can be different, or at least different software tuning for the charging curve. Subaru wants people to drive out to those national parks.鈿
That depends if you are talking 0-100% (11 hrs) or 20-100% (9 hrs). The AC chargers on the Solterra and bZ4X are the same at 6.6 kW, so both will charge at the same rate. I explained this in an earlier post in this thread.
The AC charger (6.6kW) is a physical device, and not likely to be changed by software. Most EVs have either a 6.6 kW charger or 7.4 kW. It is possible that these cars have the latter and it has been throttled down to 6.6kW. But I doubt it.

Practically, it doesn't really matter. Most L2 AC charging will happen in your garage, and will cost you in kWh, not minutes. Many outside L2 chargers are free, and not used for trip charging, except at an overnight hotel. The latter is becoming a free amenity like free wifi and free breakfasts. I made good use of that on a ski trip a few months ago.
 

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The AC charger (6.6kW) is a physical device, and not likely to be changed by software. Most EVs have either a 6.6 kW charger or 7.4 kW. It is possible that these cars have the latter and it has been throttled down to 6.6kW. But I doubt it.

Practically, it doesn't really matter. Most L2 AC charging will happen in your garage, and will cost you in kWh, not minutes. Many outside L2 chargers are free, and not used for trip charging, except at an overnight hotel. The latter is becoming a free amenity like free wifi and free breakfasts. I made good use of that on a ski trip a few months ago.
It鈥檚 6.6 kW because it is a shared part with the RAV4 Prime. I have not heard of a single electronics failure on the Prime. The condenser issues is well know because all RAVs it exposed in the front grill for rocks to smash into.

The Prime has sold as many ID.4s in the US and you could easily find dozens of ID.4 electronics replaced by trawling the owner threads. I have faith ToyoBaru will make a reliable product鈥 it鈥檚 just a tad underwhelming on the spec side. For urban usage and light off roading鈥 it will be amazing.
 

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The results don鈥檛 get any better. If ToyoBaru slapped a larger buffer (even larger than Ford) then it means the usable capacity is sub 60 kWh which is no better than EV6 Light or Ioniq 5 58 kWh EVs which are pretty crippled in range.

鈥淎n interesting thing is that the charger reports 61 kWh delivered over the full charging session. Considering that the total battery capacity is 72.8 kWh, the difference is 11.8 kWh and that does not even include charging losses and other auxiliary loads.鈥

(My notes: charging losses are about 6-12% so 55 kWh could be a worst case for usable battery capacity if this test is accurate)


222 miles of EPA range might only be possible in ideal conditions if sub 60 kWh is true.
 

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The results don鈥檛 get any better. If ToyoBaru slapped a larger buffer (even larger than Ford) then it means the usable capacity is sub 60 kWh which is no better than EV6 Light or Ioniq 5 58 kWh EVs which are pretty crippled in range.

鈥淎n interesting thing is that the charger reports 61 kWh delivered over the full charging session. Considering that the total battery capacity is 72.8 kWh, the difference is 11.8 kWh and that does not even include charging losses and other auxiliary loads.鈥

(My notes: charging losses are about 6-12% so 55 kWh could be a worst case for usable battery capacity if this test is accurate)


222 miles of EPA range might only be possible in ideal conditions if sub 60 kWh is true.
You're not taking into account the usable buffer for the Toyota. Kyle mentioned something about how he'd liked to run the Toyota below 0% until it stops, so we'd know how much usable buffer there is. Indications are that there's a good amount, since acceleration was still good at 0%. Oh, and the 61 kWh delivered was at 99% SoC (as indicated by the charger), not the full charge. Note that we also don't know how much usable buffer there is above 100%, if any for this Toyota.
 

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You're not taking into account the usable buffer for the Toyota. Kyle mentioned something about how he'd liked to run the Toyota below 0% until it stops, so we'd know how much usable buffer there is. Indications are that there's a good amount, since acceleration was still good at 0%. Oh, and the 61 kWh delivered was at 99% SoC (as indicated by the charger), not the full charge. Note that we also don't know how much usable buffer there is above 100%, if any for this Toyota.
All EVs have some buffer below 0% but more and more of them have smaller buffers so you might be able to drive 10 miles max. EV6 and Ioniq 5 start hitting turtle mode below a few percent also.


I would not rely on this bottom buffer except emergency usage.
 

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All EVs have some buffer below 0% but more and more of them have smaller buffers so you might be able to drive 10 miles max. EV6 and Ioniq 5 start hitting turtle mode below a few percent also.


I would not rely on this bottom buffer except emergency usage.
The lack of any serious turtle mode at 0% is an indication that the Toyota's buffer could be substantial.
 

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It鈥檚 6.6 kW because it is a shared part with the RAV4 Prime. I have not heard of a single electronics failure on the Prime. The condenser issues is well know because all RAVs it exposed in the front grill for rocks to smash into.

The Prime has sold as many ID.4s in the US and you could easily find dozens of ID.4 electronics replaced by trawling the owner threads. I have faith ToyoBaru will make a reliable product鈥 it鈥檚 just a tad underwhelming on the spec side. For urban usage and light off roading鈥 it will be amazing.
It seems like battery reliability is an unstrategic focus when everyone knows that battery technology is rapidly improving. Who wants a battery that lasts 20 years when the battery performance is already outdated when it's released? It especially seems like Toyota is heavily software-throttling the battery in order to maintain reliability. I would way rather beat up my battery and get amazing performance out of it now and have to replace it with something much better and cheaper in 7 years.
 

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Discussion Starter · #34 ·
It seems like battery reliability is an unstrategic focus when everyone knows that battery technology is rapidly improving. Who wants a battery that lasts 20 years when the battery performance is already outdated when it's released? It especially seems like Toyota is heavily software-throttling the battery in order to maintain reliability. I would way rather beat up my battery and get amazing performance out of it now and have to replace it with something much better and cheaper in 7 years.
Exactly. I鈥檓 worried these will be the highest depreciation Toyota/Subaru because they are behind on specs. Will be outdated in 2 years.
 

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It seems like battery reliability is an unstrategic focus when everyone knows that battery technology is rapidly improving. Who wants a battery that lasts 20 years when the battery performance is already outdated when it's released? It especially seems like Toyota is heavily software-throttling the battery in order to maintain reliability. I would way rather beat up my battery and get amazing performance out of it now and have to replace it with something much better and cheaper in 7 years.
Battery tech is barely improving at all. Very incremental. Solid State batteries have been promised 10+ years now. I still don't see any solid state batteries being used in commercial industries. We are returning back to LFPs (LiFe/A123) which we used 10+ years ago. It's basically self-driving all over again. The only thing that has improved is manufacturing and reliability improving for cheaper battery types (LFP/A123).

My opinion... no matter what a manufacturer tells you... the current gen of batteries will only last 5-10 years and replacements will cost $10K to $25K. Our current gen of EVs are disposable. Many of these EVs have first gen BMSes... don't have perfected cooling or heating systems... and nobody will want these EVs in 5-7 years much like first gen Leafs, Soul EVs, and Fiat 500e(s). It's not just the battery... the EV tech is so raw (except for the Tesla 3/Y).
 

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Battery tech is barely improving at all. Very incremental. Solid State batteries have been promised 10+ years now. I still don't see any solid state batteries being used in commercial industries. We are returning back to LFPs (LiFe/A123) which we used 10+ years ago. It's basically self-driving all over again. The only thing that has improved is manufacturing and reliability improving for cheaper battery types (LFP/A123).

My opinion... no matter what a manufacturer tells you... the current gen of batteries will only last 5-10 years and replacements will cost $10K to $25K. Our current gen of EVs are disposable. Many of these EVs have first gen BMSes... don't have perfected cooling or heating systems... and nobody will want these EVs in 5-7 years much like first gen Leafs, Soul EVs, and Fiat 500e(s). It's not just the battery... the EV tech is so raw (except for the Tesla 3/Y).
I'm not saying there are going to be sudden game-changing new battery chemistries, but energy density and cost per kWh has been rapidly declining (and as a result, range has gone up) and fast charging speed has been going up for ten years. Won't be too long before a $50k car has 10-minute 10-80% DC charging and a 400 mile range. At that point, who cares how long your 220 mile range battery with 45 minute 10-80% charging will last? Maybe a retired person on a fixed income who can't afford to replace much on their car, but is the Solterra with its off-road capabilities really the right car for that person in the first place?
 

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I'm not saying there are going to be sudden game-changing new battery chemistries, but energy density and cost per kWh has been rapidly declining (and as a result, range has gone up) and fast charging speed has been going up for ten years. Won't be too long before a $50k car has 10-minute 10-80% DC charging and a 400 mile range. At that point, who cares how long your 220 mile range battery with 45 minute 10-80% charging will last? Maybe a retired person on a fixed income who can't afford to replace much on their car, but is the Solterra with its off-road capabilities really the right car for that person in the first place?
I have no hope for a $50K going 400 mile range. First off... NMC/NCA energy density improvements have been very incremental. Like 15-20% over the last 10 years.

Second... material prices have shot through the roof (300% in the last few months) and with the EV boom it will only get worse. Lithium and nickel are not rare but cobalt is. LFP is backwards in terms of energy density but it is cheaper and I'd say 40-50% of the world's EVs are using this cheapo battery tech because of how widely adopted it is in China.

My opinion is the mad rush to EVs will cause material costs to skyrocket over the next 5 years. 400 mile EVs will be $120K+ (Lucid). All the mainstream EVs will use LFPs and have 200-250 mile ranges and cost $60K+

EVs costing $50K or less will be a rarity in the US. I don't see ToyoBaru making a dime on the Solterra or bz4x because the margins are basically zero. These feel like emission compliance cars.
 

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I think you're looking at it from a very narrow viewpoint. I believe a parallel path to battery technology development will be wireless energy transfer, thereby making older, retrofitted EVs more relevant in the future and not just throw-away devices like old phones. Even a vehicle with a 20 mile range would be perfectly fine if the distance between in-motion charge points (Mario Kart Power-ups) were every 10 miles.

In the late 1800's, motor technology developed to the point where electricity could power large vehicles. This led to the widespread use of "trolley buses" in larger cities, and many of these "wired vehicles" are still in use today.

From the link below:
"The 1930s were a significant expansion period for the trolleybuses in North America, boosted by transit demands during World War II. Notable among the many communities that embarked on this path is Seattle, which made a complete conversion starting in 1939 and built a system with 100 route-miles and 300 vehicles. That service is still basically in operation."
Now we're at the point where we have batteries powering motorized vehicles for hundreds of miles, but we're filling up our vehicle energy cache only while stationary (excluding hybrid and regenerative onboard power generation).

Eventually we'll get novel, inventive ways of transferring energy to moving objects, like cars and airplanes, which would limit the need for on-board battery storage to only travel the distances between locations wherever there is in-route power (ground-based, space-based, or otherwise).

Trolleybus History

Research paves way for wireless charging of electric vehicles
 

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I have no hope for a $50K going 400 mile range. First off... NMC/NCA energy density improvements have been very incremental. Like 15-20% over the last 10 years.

Second... material prices have shot through the roof (300% in the last few months) and with the EV boom it will only get worse. Lithium and nickel are not rare but cobalt is. LFP is backwards in terms of energy density but it is cheaper and I'd say 40-50% of the world's EVs are using this cheapo battery tech because of how widely adopted it is in China.

My opinion is the mad rush to EVs will cause material costs to skyrocket over the next 5 years. 400 mile EVs will be $120K+ (Lucid). All the mainstream EVs will use LFPs and have 200-250 mile ranges and cost $60K+

EVs costing $50K or less will be a rarity in the US. I don't see ToyoBaru making a dime on the Solterra or bz4x because the margins are basically zero. These feel like emission compliance cars.
I agree that material costs have gone through the roof lately, but I also believe there will likely be significant battery improvements over the next 5-10 years. Here is an article discussing battery density improvement over the past 12 years (since 2010): https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/1...ell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/
 
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