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This article is precisely what I am talking about. If I could quote one section


That quote is absolutely true if you are considering nationwide statistics. But some regional numbers particularly these four critical states, the 30% number is way too small. If you compare 300 kWh per capita per month to the national generation of 1007 kWh per capita per month, that is 30%. But that is not true in some other critical states that have all pledged to go 100% EV.

kWh/capita2020 per month in-state generationcents per kWh
1,007​
United States
14.47​
407​
California
26.71​
534​
New York
19.74​
548​
New Jersey
16.9​
did you even read the article or just pick a portion of it to support your argument that has been debunked many times over.
 

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did you even read the article or just pick a portion of it to support your argument that has been debunked many times over.
I've read the article several times in the past, and I did some research to see if it was true. I didn't hand pick a portion. I quoted the central theme of the article is that the US will have to increse nationwide electric production by 30% to replace the entire fleet of gasoline vehicles. They will have more than 10 years to do that. That kind of increase is very doable based on past history. From 1960 to 2000 electrical generation increased 500%. Since 2000 conservation efforts have paid off and increase in generation has been negligible.

There is no "national" electrical generation system. Almost no power can be moved through the Rocky mountains. Texas is it's own grid. Very little power is moved more than a few hundred miles. So regional numbers are very important.

I am saying that regional generation of electricity is very different than the national average.

If you need an additional 30% of national average generation to replace the national gasoline fleet and California only generates 40% of the national average electricity on a per capita basis, then in California you need to increase electrical generation by 75%.

Do you want to debunk my arithmetic?

State electricity generation for 2020 in Terawatt hours for largest electric generating states.
State
Twh
Pop (mil)
kWh/month/per person
USA​
4003​
331.45​
1,006​
TX​
473​
29.15​
1,353​
FL​
251​
21.54​
970​
PA​
230​
13.00​
1,475​
CA​
193​
39.54​
407​
IL​
173​
12.80​
1,128​
AL​
137​
5.02​
2,270​
NY​
129​
20.20​
534​
NC​
124​
10.44​
993​

A Subaru Solterra will require 394 kWh per month to travel 1250 miles which the EPA considers to be standard driving distance. A Chevy Bolt will require 350 kWh and a Nissan LEAF will require 375 kWh. A Tesla Model 3 RWD will require 312.5 kWh.
 

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“When you see the graphs, hear the facts, and get a good explanation, it all makes sense. The grid can handle EVs. The problem is that it’s not that easy to explain. So, consider bookmarking Jason’s video. The next time you run into a social media argument, send the link. If you encounter it in person, show people the video or text it to them to watch. The lies saying that there’s no way the grid can handle EVs are already halfway ’round the world. It’s time to help the truth to catch up!”
 

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“When you see the graphs, hear the facts, and get a good explanation, it all makes sense. The grid can handle EVs. The problem is that it’s not that easy to explain. So, consider bookmarking Jason’s video. The next time you run into a social media argument, send the link. If you encounter it in person, show people the video or text it to them to watch. The lies saying that there’s no way the grid can handle EVs are already halfway ’round the world. It’s time to help the truth to catch up!”
Apples and oranges. @frankamartin (and others) isn't arguing that the GRID can't handle EVs, they're making an argument about where the electricity is generated and how much of it is generated within the region where it can reasonably be transported. Simplistically, the "pipes" may be big enough to allow EVs to be charged (especially off-peak) but in some regions there just isn't enough being put INTO the "pipes" to get the job done. It can be done, but it will take more effort (investment) in some regions to achieve it.
 

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Apples and oranges. @frankamartin (and others) isn't arguing that the GRID can't handle EVs, they're making an argument about where the electricity is generated and how much of it is generated within the region where it can reasonably be transported. Simplistically, the "pipes" may be big enough to allow EVs to be charged (especially off-peak) but in some regions there just isn't enough being put INTO the "pipes" to get the job done. It can be done, but it will take more effort (investment) in some regions to achieve it.
huh? The GRID includes the “pipes” as well as the power stations putting energy into the pipes.

everyone is entitled to their own OPINIONS. this thread is like debating if climate change is real and the causes of it with people. No thanks.
Have fun!
 

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Apples and oranges. @frankamartin (and others) isn't arguing that the GRID can't handle EVs,... It can be done, but it will take more effort (investment) in some regions to achieve it.
Thank you for your intelligent comment!

The argument that the the GRID can't handle EVs is just as stupid as saying the GRID in the 1950s couldn't handle all the electric home HVAC that would be built in the 1960s. You simply had to build enough power plants. Of course, the majority of power plants built in those years were coal fired, since using coal for home heating was rapidly diminishing.

Jason's intelligent video is saying that the nation needs roughly a 30% increase in GWh of electrical generation. The electric generation was increased by 40% from 1987 to 2000, so we don't need to look into the distant past for that kind of increase.

The increase needed for California, is closer to 75%. Also California signed a state law in 2018 pledging to eliminate these generation methods by 2045 (percent shows their contribution in 2021)
  • 7.5% large hydrodynamic
  • 8.5% nuclear
  • 50.3% natural gas
The decision to close Diablo Canyon, the last nuclear power plant in California is pretty much unchangeable at this point. They have withdrawn their application from NRC for a 20 year extension. But possibly more critical is that California will no longer be able to purchase electricity from Palo Verde 100 miles across the CA-AZ border. It will not be possible for a utility to invest in Advanced Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) because by the time they are operational it will be illegal to use power from SMRs in California. Nobody is knocking down dams, but the droughts are pretty much eliminating their value. California is not closing natural gas plants, but unlike most of the nation they have stopped building new ones.

Hawaii is very dependent on oil for electricity generation which is just as dirty as coal. Obviously that is because they are a distant island. The ocean near Hawaii has massive steady trade winds, but ocean based wind generation and accompanying cabling is very expensive and no one wants to interfere with US Navy submarine options. So basically electricity is priced at a higher ratio that dwarfs the higher price of gasoline in Hawaii compared to the mainland. Actually right now gasoline is more expensive in California than in Hawaii.
 

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I have to go back to the question of what you are hoping people get from your dissertations in this thread about batteries?
On August 14 and 15, 2020, the CAISO was forced to institute rotating electricity outages in California in the midst of a West-wide extreme heat wave.

EV advocates have gotten it into their head that these rolling blackouts were just a fluke, and the conversion to EVS IN CALIFORNIA is going to proceed without any problems.They seem to base this conclusion by arguments like the one posted earlier that concern nationwide generation.

In fact California is very different than the nation as a whole. Only two natural gas plants have opened in CA since 2013, and a major nuclear facility is going to shut down in 2025.
  • Carlsbad Energy Center 530 mW open in 2019 natural gas
  • Pio Pico Energy Center 395 mW open in 2016 natual gas
  • Diablo Canyon 2,256 mW close by 2025 nuclear
In contrast the nation as a whole increased generation of electricity by natural gas by 32% from 2013 to 2020.

The optimists believe that solar and wind (but mainly solar) will meet all of California's future needs and that battery storage will be developed to take care of delivering electricity when the sun is not shining.

I believe that projection is overly optimistic. I think single family homeowners in California will have to view their EV as an integral part of home electrical needs. Rolling blackouts are going to be more common. Toyota is on the right track to be developing home battery backup which will presumably be modified in upcoming years to include your vehicle as a portion of the home system.

I think homeowners, particularly in California, will have to make decisions about driving or keeping their home operational during heat waves or other bad environmental situations. In extreme situations, based on their computer algorithms, they may have to move to their car and put the home on emergency power only for a day or so.

I know that sounds extreme, hence the data about generation per capita. Dividing by population is a simple mathematical operation, but this statistic does not get much attention.
State
TWh 2020
Pop
kWh/month/per p
USA​
4003​
331.45​
1,006​
TX​
473​
29.15​
1,353​
FL​
251​
21.54​
970​
PA​
230​
13.00​
1,475​
CA​
193​
39.54​
407​
 

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So you shared all this information quite extensively in the "Transmission Revolution" thread so there has to be something more you're looking for other than just posting the same stuff over and over. Since this thread is no longer about what the OP shared, I'm just wondering if there is a way to close this conversation out that meets what you're hoping to gain.
 

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Toyota has revealed a new home battery storage system they're calling the "O-Uchi Kyuden System". The system would be used to deliver power in case of an emergency. It's based on the same battery tech as the bZ4X/Solterra/RZ.
How about this as a summary statement. On a per capita basis, Californianians use about 8% less gasoline than the nation as a whole, but in-state electric generation is 60% lower.

Jason's video conclusion can be achieved by just looking at the EIA website for 2020. Nationwide consumption expressed in QUADs or quadrillion BTUs = 293,071 gWh:
  • 32.2 QUADs Petroleum consumption, 66% to transportation, 54% to light duty vehicles (LDV) : 32.2 x 66% x 54% = 11.5 QUADs for LDV
  • 35.7 QUADs go into electric generation
  • 11.5/35.7 =32.1%
The video assures us that ~32% increase could easily be achieved if we merely return to modest electric production increases we saw in the 1990s. California on the other hand has to return to the kind of electric production increases recorded in the 1960s, while at the same time shutting down nuclear and natural gas facilities.

Massive rolling blackouts in California will certainly affect the rest of the nations eagerness to support the switch from ICE to EV.

Your EV will probably use ~400kWh / month. In California the electricity generated in state is roughly 400kWh / month per person in 2020. In the future most people will need a control sytem that treats the two domains together, to share resources. The batteries in the vehicle and the batteries in your home will both be part of the system.
You will need a prediction system taking into account warnings of rolling blackouts so you don't drive unecessarily if you are going to need the battery backup for home use. This sytem will be able to turn off non-critical circuits in your home. In really dire situations you will have to move into your vehicle where you can be kept at optimal temperature and the home will reduce to a standby state. For instance in winter the home temperature may be reduced to 45 degrees.
The logical progression for "O-Uchi Kyuden System" is to become an integrated home/vehicle battery backup system.

I've said my peice, and I won't post in this thread anymore. I tried to support this position with EIA statistics, but if you think I am a nutjob then so be it.
 
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