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Discussion Starter · #61 ·
Effects of the proposal to change EV tax credits are starting to meet resistance….


From the article…

”Auto dealers are worried they "will be left trying to explain to consumers why these incentives aren't available to them," Cody Lusk, president of the American International Automobile Dealers Association said Wednesday.”


“Democrats are divided over the proposals, even as Republican lawmakers are closing ranks in opposition.”

“Michigan Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow said she is still pushing to change the proposals.”

"It's a very cumbersome, unworkable credit once the full restrictions set in," Stabenow told Reuters. "There's conversations going on."
More cars are going to lose the credit they qualify for now than will gain the credit. Seems like we're going backwards in a sense. There should be a reasonable grace period (maybe 2 years) for the old (current) plan to be an option. This would give some time for companies to get things moved/sourced over here.
 

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That idea is a sensible one, and one I hope gets inserted into the final legislation if/when it’s approved.

As should have been expected, there’s “buyer remorse” already surfacing in the “grand bargain”. Passage is not a slam dunk…
 

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As should have been expected, there’s “buyer remorse” already surfacing in the “grand bargain”. Passage is not a slam dunk…
Thomas Carlyle (4 December 1795 – 5 February 1881) called economics "the dismal science". Although it was not the context of the original quote, I always think of the phrase in terms of every economic outcome is good for people, but there is no such thing as a decision which is good for everyone.
Clearly the primary intent of this legislation is to reduce emissions, but a secondary intent is to move EV production to the United States and away from foreign plants.

The “voluntary export restraint” (VER) program limiting cars imported from Japan was negotiated by the Reagan Administration at the urging of the then-ailing auto industry. From 1981 through 1983 the Japanese were allowed to ship 1.68 million cars annually to the U.S.

As we all know Honda immediately opened a plant in Marysville Ohio and by 1989 propelled the Accord to become the first foreign car to become the best selling car in America. As the USD became weaker in the late 1980s every other Japanese automaker followed suit. Before the Reagan administration was over, Hyundai, made initial inroads into the American market.

Despite the poor sales in 2021, the Japanese automakers sold 5.7 million vehicles in America and Hyundai/Kia another 1.5 million They certainly are not the little runabouts that you could buy in 1980 when Reagan was elected.

The VER ended up hurting the American consumer more than anyone, and it did nothing towards improving the American automaking industry. I think there are some people who believe that behind the flag-waving of the new EV proposal, the American consumer may end up paying again.
 

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Seems to me the primary intent of this legislation is to drive up the cost of GM's competition.
That’s exactly what I was saying earlier. That’s the only reason this law would go into effect on January 1st. Every other environmental law usually has a deadline 10 years down the road.
 

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Seems to me the primary intent of this legislation is to drive up the cost of GM's competition.
Well that will be the initial effect, just as that was the initial effect of the “voluntary export restraint” (VER) program in 1981 was to aid domestic automakers. From 1981 through 1983 the Japanese were allowed to ship 1.68 million cars annually to the U.S.But eventually most major automakers will move production to the US.

I suspect there will be a lot of pressure to include EVs assembled in Canada and Mexico as well as required by Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

During 2018, an investigation by the United States Administration in May 2018 to determine whether imports of automobiles and parts into the U.S. were a national security concern. Among other intentions, the Administration planned to impose tariffs of 25% on imported motor vehicles, and 10% on automotive parts. However this action was subsequently subverted with the signing on November 30 th of CUSMA .
 

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Discussion Starter · #68 ·
It is currently written as North America for both final assembly and battery components.
Yep, and value percentage requirements of critical minerals extracted or processed in countries with a free trade agreement with the U.S., or recycled in North America.
 

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More automakers (including domestic ones) aren’t very positive about the new tax rebate changes being voted on today in the Senate…

U.S. automakers say 70% of EV models would not qualify for tax credit under Senate bill
There will be waivers

 

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Interesting take on the subject in the Politico article.

Let’s all hope the predictions of 12-18+ month waivers come to pass, else we may see a contraction of EV offerings in the US, as manufacturers concentrate on moving their EVs in other, non-US markets.

While apparently well intended, the legislation as currently proposed (designed with poison pills…intentional or not) will only do harm to the EV evolution here. Better to simply remove any tax credit whatsoever if this is the path we end up going down and tell the manufacturers “you’re all on your own”…
 

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While apparently well intended, the legislation as currently proposed (designed with poison pills…intentional or not) will only do harm to the EV evolution here. Better to simply remove any tax credit whatsoever if this is the path we end up going down and tell the manufacturers “you’re all on your own”…
Will be interesting to see what changes if any get made in the House since they still have to take up the entire bill. It will be almost impossible for the current administration's target for EV adoption to move forward without waivers or some sort of direct incentive to the automakers. Even vehicles that could somehow magically qualify based on the requirements would have 2 tiers of buyers/pricing at time of purchase. If you make over $150k the car is automatically more expensive for you
 

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Frankly, I’d be surprised to see a single change in the legislation when the House votes on it. The supporters are already running victory laps, so any changes are unlikely at this point, IMO.

For the life of me, it makes no sense to have legislation passed that immediately pushes so many EV models off a cliff. It’s not as if there are sales lots full American made EVs just sitting around unsold, rusting away.

I wish someone familiar with writing the legislation would explain exactly why there was no provision for a 12-18 month “adaptation period” to allow for a conversion process to allow for moving production to NA for US sales.
 

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Until the final legislation is signed into law, there are no “definites”…

And, specifically, as it relates to the Solterra… until the manufacturer releases them for sale, it doesn’t make any difference one way or the other…
 
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