Subaru sold 499 Solterras in the US during January

frankamartin said:

Another 499 Solterra sales in January

January 2021 was the best January in the history of Subaru of America

31. Jan. 2023​	Model​	31. Jan. 2021​	difference​
4,582​	Ascent​	4,743​	-161​
332​	BRZ​	163​	169​
12,706​	Crosstrek​	10,431​	2,275​
10,114​	Forester​	13,207​	-3,093​
2,451​	Impreza​	2,771​	-320​
1,269​	Legacy​	1,746​	-477​
10,414​	Outback​	11,784​	-1,370​
499​	Solterra​	​	499​
2,006​	WRX​	1,555​	451​
44,373​	TOTAL​	46,400​	-2,027​

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Although the press release naturally compares this January sales with last year's, showing a modest increase of 215 units.

The January sales of two years ago were the best January in Subaru of America's history. I thought it made a more interesting comparison as there is a possibility that 2023 will set a new annual record.

We still don't know exactly why Forester sales are slouching. The base Forester is only $1400 more than the base Crosstrek with CVT, yet it offers a bigger engine by 30 hp and considerably more cargo volume (34% more cubic feet). It would seem like purchasing the Crosstrek is a false economy. Yet the Crosstrek sales continue to soar above those of the Forester. Both the Crosstrek and Forester are assembled in Japan,

R P said:

Hey, I have a Crosstrek. I chose it over a Forester after taking both for a test ride at the time. It is a much nicer car to drive. And I think it looks better. It is plenty big enough, didn't need the extra size of the Forester.

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My false economy applies mostly to the base trim. As you get to higher level trims the choice seems more personal. For example at the Sport trim level the difference in price is more like $3000 and the engines are the same. I could see picking the Crosstrek if looks are more important than cargo volume.

Which trim did you purchase?

The all-new 2024 Crosstrek will make its U.S. debut at the 2023 Chicago Auto Show next week on February 9. Two ideas have been in the rumor mill. #1) the manual transmission will be discontinued for the Crosstrek, and #2) the Crosstrek will exclusively be sold with the 182 2.5L engine.

If both those rumors turn out to be true, and you were a Subaru executive, how would you price the Crosstrek base model? Would you make it the identical MSRP as the base Forester?

R P said:

There is a new 2024 Crosstrek coming out, and I believe it will only have the 2.5.

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We should find out next Thursday. But I have read that rumor as well.

Mazda dropped their 2.0 liter engine after MY2022. For 2023 they now offer only 2.5 liter naturally aspirated vehicles


Besides Subaru, there are six other Asian manufacturers and Ford vying for a piece of the 2.0 liter naturally aspirated market which is dominated by Toyota and Honda. . Perhaps it is time for Subaru to completely give up on the 2.0 liter naturally aspirated engine. The fuel economy is not that different between the 2.0 liter and the 2.5 liter Subaru engines.

US sales in 2017 reflected the move from assembling 4th generation Imprezas in Japan to assembling 5th generation Imprezas in Indiana.
2017
177,563 Forester
110,138 Crosstrek
86,043 Impreza

US sales in 2021 reflect a change in consumer taste away from the Impreza and towards the Crosstrek
2021
154,723 Forester
127,466 Crosstrek
34,791 Impreza

US sales in 2022 had an unexpected massive change in rank between the Forester and Crosstrek
2022
114,096 Forester
155,142 Crosstrek
30,846 Impreza

JayEM said:

I suspect "younger buyers" focused on more power probably aren't shopping Subaru.

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I suspect you are correct, and the rather modest sales of the new generation of WRX means that even fewer young buyers are shopping Subaru.

But the bottom line is a base Crosstrek and a base Forester don't look radically different. For only $1400, the base Forester has an additional 34% of cargo volume which should appeal more to older buyers and 30 hp in additional power which should appeal more to younger buyers. The fact that from 2021 to 2022 the Forester sold 40,000 fewer units, while the Crosstrek sold ~30,000 additional units in the fifth year of the second generation is unexplained. Since they are both assembled in Japan there is nothing obvious in part shortages or shipping costs.

It has occurred to me that the Crosstrek buyers might be more likely to upgrade to the Sport and Limited trim while the Forester buyers are more likely to stick with the base trim. That might make it more likely that scarce parts would be prioritized for Crosstreks instead of Foresters.

If production resumes at pre-part shortage levels, it will be interesting to see if 2023 is the year when Subaru finally outsells Nissan in the US. The 2023 Nissan Ariya starts at $43,190 while the 2023 Subaru Solterra starts at $44,995. With Nissan ending the Rogue Sport and widespread consumer rejection of Nissan's turbocharged 3 cylinder 1.5 liter engine in the standard Rogue, it is almost certain that the Crosstrek will outsell the Rogue for 2023.

poodlemaster said:

I really don't care about Foresters or Crosstreks, and don't think this place is a good place to discuss them.

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Fair enough. However, in keeping with the OP I will restrict comments to general ones about the fiscal health of SOA. Progress in Subaru EVs are dependent on the company being strong enough to strike out on it's own and develop EVs apart from Toyota.

SOA sales in America took are traditionally stronger in February than January, but they took a bad nosedive last February 2022. If February sales are below 45K like January it is not an indicator of long term recovery. Sales need to be in the 48K-50K range.

Subaru stock went up 7% in January based on decent sales. If sales for February are above 51K you may want to consider buying stock in Subaru.

Subaru sold over 70K vehicles in a single month only one time (August of 2019). But a strong showing in February may indicate that they have solved their most severe supply issue problems, and sales will increase this summer.

If you get a jump on the stock in early March the price may soar in late March or this summer.



Subaru survived the 2021-2022 downturn better than the other Japanese automakers. Nissan and Honda took the worst of the downturn