[BoxerPwr]

According to Subaru of America's January sales numbers, they sold 499 Solterras.

Subaru U.S. Media Center - SUBARU OF AMERICA, INC. REPORTS JANUARY SALES RESULTS

Subaru of America, Inc. (SOA) today reported 44,373 vehicle sales for January 2023, a 0.5 percent increase compared with January 2022 (44,158).

media.subaru.com

 

[JayEM]

It managed to outsell BRZ again, but not Legacy or WRX.

 

[n6nl]

I think it’s still a bit of a delivery problem. We’ll see, once the backlog diminishes, if they have cars generally available for sale on the lots, how are sales then? Especially comparatives to the competition.

 

[frankamartin]

Another 499 Solterra sales in January

January 2021 was the best January in the history of Subaru of America

31. Jan. 2023​	Model​	31. Jan. 2021​	difference​
4,582​	Ascent​	4,743​	-161​
332​	BRZ​	163​	169​
12,706​	Crosstrek​	10,431​	2,275​
10,114​	Forester​	13,207​	-3,093​
2,451​	Impreza​	2,771​	-320​
1,269​	Legacy​	1,746​	-477​
10,414​	Outback​	11,784​	-1,370​
499​	Solterra​	​	499​
2,006​	WRX​	1,555​	451​
44,373​	TOTAL​	46,400​	-2,027​

Although the press release naturally compares this January sales with last year's, showing a modest increase of 215 units.

The January sales of two years ago were the best January in Subaru of America's history. I thought it made a more interesting comparison as there is a possibility that 2023 will set a new annual record.

We still don't know exactly why Forester sales are slouching. The base Forester is only $1400 more than the base Crosstrek with CVT, yet it offers a bigger engine by 30 hp and considerably more cargo volume (34% more cubic feet). It would seem like purchasing the Crosstrek is a false economy. Yet the Crosstrek sales continue to soar above those of the Forester. Both the Crosstrek and Forester are assembled in Japan,

46,400​	31. Jan. 2021​
46,285​	31. Jan. 2020​
46,072​	31. Jan. 2019​
44,373​	31. Jan. 2023​
44,357​	31. Jan. 2018​
44,158​	31. Jan. 2022​
43,879​	31. Jan. 2017​
41,101​	31. Jan. 2016​
40,812​	31. Jan. 2015​
33,000​	31. Jan. 2014​
27,663​	31. Jan. 2013​
22,807​	31. Jan. 2012​
18,858​	31. Jan. 2011​

 

[R P]

Hey, I have a Crosstrek. I chose it over a Forester after taking both for a test ride at the time. It is a much nicer car to drive. And I think it looks better. It is plenty big enough, didn't need the extra size of the Forester.

 

[frankamartin]

Hey, I have a Crosstrek. I chose it over a Forester after taking both for a test ride at the time. It is a much nicer car to drive. And I think it looks better. It is plenty big enough, didn't need the extra size of the Forester.

My false economy applies mostly to the base trim. As you get to higher level trims the choice seems more personal. For example at the Sport trim level the difference in price is more like $3000 and the engines are the same. I could see picking the Crosstrek if looks are more important than cargo volume.

Which trim did you purchase?

Base​	Crosstrek​	152hp​	$24,995​	$26,395​	182hp​	Forester​	Base​	$1,400​
Premium​	Crosstrek​	152hp​	$26,145​	$29,395​	182hp​	Forester​	Premium​	$3,250​
Sport​	Crosstrek​	182hp​	$27,995​	$30,965​	182hp​	Forester​	Sport​	$2,970​
Limited​	Crosstrek​	182hp​	$29,495​	$33,075​	182hp​	Forester​	Limited​	$3,580​

The all-new 2024 Crosstrek will make its U.S. debut at the 2023 Chicago Auto Show next week on February 9. Two ideas have been in the rumor mill. #1) the manual transmission will be discontinued for the Crosstrek, and #2) the Crosstrek will exclusively be sold with the 182 2.5L engine.

If both those rumors turn out to be true, and you were a Subaru executive, how would you price the Crosstrek base model? Would you make it the identical MSRP as the base Forester?

 

[JayEM]

I don't have access to which age groups are buying Crosstrek vs. Forester, but I would suspect the Crosstrek might appeal more to younger people. Or at least people who want to be younger, LOL (I prefer the way it looks, and bigger isn't necessarily better).

 

[frankamartin]

I don't have access to which age groups are buying Crosstrek vs. Forester, but I would suspect the Crosstrek might appeal more to younger people. Or at least people who want to be younger, LOL (I prefer the way it looks, and bigger isn't necessarily better).

I suspect you are correct. Even though the Forester is 15 years older than the Crosstrek and they are both based on the Impreza, the Forester seems to have a more fuddy-duddy marketing appeal.

But that is why I mentioned that you get two things for the extra $1400, more cargo volume and a bigger engine. Younger buyers like bigger engines.

 

[R P]

I did get the top trim Limited, but before they had the 2.5 engine. But the 2.0 power is quite adequate for me. Does everything I want. There is a new 2024 Crosstrek coming out, and I believe it will only have the 2.5. Not that it would be worth trading up to just for that. All moot for me, though, as I want a 2nd BEV and won't have any need further to have an ICE car. Where and how I live, the Solterra and another trip BEV is all we need.

 

[frankamartin]

There is a new 2024 Crosstrek coming out, and I believe it will only have the 2.5.

We should find out next Thursday. But I have read that rumor as well.

Mazda dropped their 2.0 liter engine after MY2022. For 2023 they now offer only 2.5 liter naturally aspirated vehicles


Besides Subaru, there are six other Asian manufacturers and Ford vying for a piece of the 2.0 liter naturally aspirated market which is dominated by Toyota and Honda. . Perhaps it is time for Subaru to completely give up on the 2.0 liter naturally aspirated engine. The fuel economy is not that different between the 2.0 liter and the 2.5 liter Subaru engines.

Ford	166	hp	Ecosport
Toyota	169	hp	Corolla
	169	hp	Corolla	Cross
	169	hp	Corolla	Hatchback
Honda	158	hp	Civic
	158	hp	HR-V
Hyundai	147	hp	Elantra
	147	hp	Kona
Kia	147	hp	Forte
	146	hp	Seltos
	147	hp	Soul
Nissan	141	hp	Rogue	Sport
	149	hp	Sentra
Mitsubishi	148	hp	Outlander	Sport

 

[JayEM]

Younger buyers like bigger engines.

Or at least more powerful ones. But obv. choosing a car to buy is a complicated process and there are always trade-offs to be made.

I suspect "younger buyers" focused on more power probably aren't shopping Subaru.

 

[R P]

Yes, I was young once, and power was everything then. And noise helped, too,...haha.

 

[frankamartin]

US sales in 2017 reflected the move from assembling 4th generation Imprezas in Japan to assembling 5th generation Imprezas in Indiana.
2017
177,563 Forester
110,138 Crosstrek
86,043 Impreza

US sales in 2021 reflect a change in consumer taste away from the Impreza and towards the Crosstrek
2021
154,723 Forester
127,466 Crosstrek
34,791 Impreza

US sales in 2022 had an unexpected massive change in rank between the Forester and Crosstrek
2022
114,096 Forester
155,142 Crosstrek
30,846 Impreza

I suspect "younger buyers" focused on more power probably aren't shopping Subaru.

I suspect you are correct, and the rather modest sales of the new generation of WRX means that even fewer young buyers are shopping Subaru.

But the bottom line is a base Crosstrek and a base Forester don't look radically different. For only $1400, the base Forester has an additional 34% of cargo volume which should appeal more to older buyers and 30 hp in additional power which should appeal more to younger buyers. The fact that from 2021 to 2022 the Forester sold 40,000 fewer units, while the Crosstrek sold ~30,000 additional units in the fifth year of the second generation is unexplained. Since they are both assembled in Japan there is nothing obvious in part shortages or shipping costs.

It has occurred to me that the Crosstrek buyers might be more likely to upgrade to the Sport and Limited trim while the Forester buyers are more likely to stick with the base trim. That might make it more likely that scarce parts would be prioritized for Crosstreks instead of Foresters.

If production resumes at pre-part shortage levels, it will be interesting to see if 2023 is the year when Subaru finally outsells Nissan in the US. The 2023 Nissan Ariya starts at $43,190 while the 2023 Subaru Solterra starts at $44,995. With Nissan ending the Rogue Sport and widespread consumer rejection of Nissan's turbocharged 3 cylinder 1.5 liter engine in the standard Rogue, it is almost certain that the Crosstrek will outsell the Rogue for 2023.

 

[poodlemaster]

I was banned from the BRZ forums for talking about my Solterra. I don't really think we need to do that, but I really don't care about Foresters or Crosstreks, and don't think this place is a good place to discuss them.

 

[R P]

I was banned from the BRZ forums for talking about my Solterra. I don't really think we need to do that, but I really don't care about Foresters or Crosstreks, and don't think this place is a good place to discuss them.

Haha, they don't like me over on the Crosstrek forum anymore either. Doesn't help when they have an anti-EV administrator that keeps spewing EV misinformation, yet has no direct knowledge or experience with EVs.

 

[frankamartin]

I really don't care about Foresters or Crosstreks, and don't think this place is a good place to discuss them.

Fair enough. However, in keeping with the OP I will restrict comments to general ones about the fiscal health of SOA. Progress in Subaru EVs are dependent on the company being strong enough to strike out on it's own and develop EVs apart from Toyota.

SOA sales in America took are traditionally stronger in February than January, but they took a bad nosedive last February 2022. If February sales are below 45K like January it is not an indicator of long term recovery. Sales need to be in the 48K-50K range.

Subaru stock went up 7% in January based on decent sales. If sales for February are above 51K you may want to consider buying stock in Subaru.

Subaru sold over 70K vehicles in a single month only one time (August of 2019). But a strong showing in February may indicate that they have solved their most severe supply issue problems, and sales will increase this summer.

If you get a jump on the stock in early March the price may soar in late March or this summer.

year​	average​	change​	Jan​	Feb​	Mar​	Apr​	May​	Jun​	Jul​	Aug​	Sep​	Oct​	Nov​	Dec​
2014​	42,808​	21.0%​	33,000​	34,909​	44,479​	40,083​	44,170​	41,367​	45,714​	50,246​	41,517​	43,012​	45,273​	49,923​
2015​	48,556​	13.4%​	40,812​	41,358​	49,111​	47,241​	49,561​	44,335​	50,517​	52,697​	53,070​	51,629​	46,070​	56,274​
2016​	51,261​	5.6%​	41,101​	42,011​	49,285​	50,380​	50,083​	46,598​	52,093​	60,418​	54,918​	53,760​	51,308​	63,177​
2017​	53,996​	5.3%​	43,879​	45,500​	54,871​	52,368​	56,135​	52,057​	55,703​	63,215​	55,120​	54,045​	51,721​	63,342​
2018​	56,678​	5.0%​	44,357​	47,249​	58,097​	53,170​	60,146​	59,841​	59,426​	64,088​	57,044​	55,394​	56,782​	64,541​
2019​	58,343​	2.9%​	46,072​	49,081​	61,601​	57,288​	63,972​	61,511​	64,106​	70,039​	51,659​	55,531​	56,893​	62,364​
2020​	50,995​	-12.6%​	46,285​	51,695​	32,611​	30,624​	51,988​	53,911​	51,458​	57,885​	60,103​	61,411​	50,413​	63,558​
2021​	48,651​	-4.6%​	46,400​	48,300​	65,726​	61,389​	56,558​	42,877​	50,125​	49,373​	42,054​	36,817​	33,045​	51,146​
2022​	46,382​	-4.7%​	44,158​	44,866​	43,322​	45,748​	42,526​	43,175​	41,536​	50,126​	45,658​	48,568​	50,138​	56,760​
2023​	​	​	44,373​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​

Subaru survived the 2021-2022 downturn better than the other Japanese automakers. Nissan and Honda took the worst of the downturn

Toyota Motors N.A.​	-9.6%​
American Honda​	-32.9%​
Mazda North America​	-11.4%​
Mitsubishi Motors​	-15.9%​
Nissan Group​	-25.4%​
Subaru Corp​	-4.7%​