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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Prediction 1: It will be mid July by the time the first customers will have their Solterra.

Prediction 2 : easy one - It is going to be Southern Cal (near LA) folks who will get hold of their Solterras first.

Prediction 3 : The early (July15-Aug 15) customers will pay MSRP and some of the rest(depending uon local market) will pay more despite what we are told when we made the purchase order. I will get a push back on this. But, we can't fight market forces.

Prediction 4: another easy one - There will be some significant number (about 20 percent) of customers who have a purchase orders WILL NOT go through buying it.

Prediction 5: 75 percent of the people did not go through buying process will have regrets of varying degrees.

Prediction 6: To the surprise of many, Subaru Solterra will be sold out despite its shortcomings.

Prediction 7: Most people who are worried about Solterra charging curve will soon find out it is a non issue for their specific use case.

Prediction 8: Subaru and Toyota will do a OTA software update around Christmas time that will improve the charging curve.

Note : I hope that the 3 margaritas did not impair my judgment. :)
 

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Prediction 1: It will be mid July by the time the first customers will have their Solterra.

Prediction 2 : easy one - It is going to be Southern Cal (near LA) folks who will get hold of their Solterras first.

Prediction 3 : The early (July15-Aug 15) customers will pay MSRP and some of the rest(depending uon local market) will pay more despite what we are told when we made the purchase order. I will get a push back on this. But, we can't fight market forces.

Prediction 4: another easy one - There will be some significant number (about 20 percent) of customers who have a purchase orders WILL NOT go through buying it.

Prediction 5: 75 percent of the people did not go through buying process will have regrets of varying degrees.

Prediction 6: To the surprise of many, Subaru Solterra will be sold out despite its shortcomings.

Prediction 7: Most people who are worried about Solterra charging curve will soon find out it is a non issue for their specific use case.

Prediction 8: Subaru and Toyota will do a OTA software update around Christmas time that will improve the charging curve.

Note : I hope that the 3 margaritas did not impair my judgment. :)
 

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Vancouver, 2018 Crosstrek Limited
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Re #5, I think it will be more than 50% that will not go through with it. This nothing to lose refund is not much of a commitment. And with higher interest rates coming, and continued high inflation, more will be changing their spending priorities. Plus more competitive models will be announced this fall. This % could be even higher in Canada (I hope), as they haven't even announced pricing yet, and you can bet it will be higher than people are expecting.

In Canada it sure looks like we will see the Toyota version first. They have announced pricing here, and it is earlier in the US as well.
 

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Re #5, I think it will be more than 50% that will not go through with it. This nothing to lose refund is not much of a commitment. And with higher interest rates coming, and continued high inflation, more will be changing their spending priorities. Plus more competitive models will be announced this fall. This % could be even higher in Canada (I hope), as they haven't even announced pricing yet, and you can bet it will be higher than people are expecting.

In Canada it sure looks like we will see the Toyota version first. They have announced pricing here, and it is earlier in the US as well.
I think a whole lot hinges on the real-world tested charging speed and highway efficiency of the Solterra (not bZ4X and assuming it's the same). I hope this silence from Subaru means they're working on that charging issue.
 

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2022 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Preferred AWD LR
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I think #8 is very wrong. If you're right about #6, and I think you are because there's a massive shortage of EVs right now and people would buy a city bus to drive to work if it had a battery, then Subaru and Toyota have zero incentive to immediately improve the charging curve. I think we have to get through this supply crisis and to the point where there are EVs on lots to see people not choosing these vehicles as a result of the charging curve hurt Toyota and Subaru meaningfully so that they fix it.
 
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