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112 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
The bulk of Subaru sales are in US and Canada, but the Indiana plant only makes Outlook, Legacy, Ascent, and Impreza models that are sold in North America. Foresters, Crosstreks, WRXs, BZs and Solterra are assembled in Japan.

Hyundai manufactures its EVs in the US at Hyundai’s Alabama plant. With this decision, Hyundai looks to make a larger impact on the growing EV market in the US, and take advantage proposed subsidies for electric vehicles produced on US soil.

Any chance that Subaru will follow Hyundai's lead and we will see Solterras built here?
2021​
Sales by vol​
2018​
69.3%​
U.S.​
65.8%​
9.9%​
Japan​
11.5%​
6.8%​
Canada​
5.6%​
4.4%​
Australia​
4.8%​
2.6%​
Europe​
3.9%​
2.0%​
China​
2.1%​
0.7%​
Russia​
0.8%​
4.4%​
Others​
5.4%​

2021​
Production​
2018​
36.2%​
U.S.​
35.3%​
63.8%​
Japan​
64.7%​

Raw Data
 

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The bulk of Subaru sales are in US and Canada, but the Indiana plant only makes Outlook, Legacy, Ascent, and Impreza models that are sold in North America. Foresters, Crosstreks, WRXs, BZs and Solterra are assembled in Japan.

Hyundai manufactures its EVs in the US at Hyundai’s Alabama plant. With this decision, Hyundai looks to make a larger impact on the growing EV market in the US, and take advantage proposed subsidies for electric vehicles produced on US soil.

Any chance that Subaru will follow Hyundai's lead and we will see Solterras built here?
2021​
Sales by vol​
2018​
69.3%​
U.S.​
65.8%​
9.9%​
Japan​
11.5%​
6.8%​
Canada​
5.6%​
4.4%​
Australia​
4.8%​
2.6%​
Europe​
3.9%​
2.0%​
China​
2.1%​
0.7%​
Russia​
0.8%​
4.4%​
Others​
5.4%​

2021​
Production​
2018​
36.2%​
U.S.​
35.3%​
63.8%​
Japan​
64.7%​

Raw Data
My guess is Toyobaru will watch to see just how this initial offering plays out, and if the demand stays strong they’ll eventually add US production.
 

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112 Posts
Discussion Starter · #3 ·
My guess is Toyobaru will watch to see just how this initial offering plays out, and if the demand stays strong they’ll eventually add US production.
The demands of the EPA get very strict after 2023. I didn't think that automakers had the option of seeing if demand stays strong . They have no choice but to drop prices and make demand stay reasonably strong or they won't pass CAFE requirements that are jumping 26%-33% in just two years.

cars​
mpg require​
SUV​
49.48​
2021​
39.71​
50.21​
2022​
40.29​
50.99​
2023​
40.93​
55.42​
2024​
44.48​
60.26​
2025​
48.32​
66.95​
2026​
53.73​
 

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13 Posts
The bulk of Subaru sales are in US and Canada, but the Indiana plant only makes Outlook, Legacy, Ascent, and Impreza models that are sold in North America. Foresters, Crosstreks, WRXs, BZs and Solterra are assembled in Japan.

Hyundai manufactures its EVs in the US at Hyundai’s Alabama plant. With this decision, Hyundai looks to make a larger impact on the growing EV market in the US, and take advantage proposed subsidies for electric vehicles produced on US soil.

Any chance that Subaru will follow Hyundai's lead and we will see Solterras built here?
2021​
Sales by vol​
2018​
69.3%​
U.S.​
65.8%​
9.9%​
Japan​
11.5%​
6.8%​
Canada​
5.6%​
4.4%​
Australia​
4.8%​
2.6%​
Europe​
3.9%​
2.0%​
China​
2.1%​
0.7%​
Russia​
0.8%​
4.4%​
Others​
5.4%​

2021​
Production​
2018​
36.2%​
U.S.​
35.3%​
63.8%​
Japan​
64.7%​

Raw Data
The Solterra is also slated for Chinese manufacture. China is a leader in electric vehicles on the road. It is ironic that they are building coal power plants to provide the needed electricity.
 

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135 Posts
Hyundai manufactures its EVs in the US at Hyundai’s Alabama plant. With this decision, Hyundai looks to make a larger impact on the growing EV market in the US, and take advantage proposed subsidies for electric vehicles produced on US soil.

Any chance that Subaru will follow Hyundai's lead and we will see Solterras built here?
Where are you getting this incorrect info?

Ioniq 5s are made in the Korea which is the bulk of Hyundia's EV production.

EV6s are made in Korea too but Tellurides are made in Georgia.
 

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135 Posts
I meant "some EVs" , not "all EVs" or even "most EVs".
Genesis GV70 production headed for Alabama
Let's replace "some" with "insignificant"

Genesis annual sales in the US have hovered around 20K until a spike last year. Telsa sells that many EVs in the US in a month.


Hyundai has 740K annual sales per year in the US.

 

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The demands of the EPA get very strict after 2023. I didn't think that automakers had the option of seeing if demand stays strong . They have no choice but to drop prices and make demand stay reasonably strong or they won't pass CAFE requirements that are jumping 26%-33% in just two years.

cars​
mpg require​
SUV​
49.48​
2021​
39.71​
50.21​
2022​
40.29​
50.99​
2023​
40.93​
55.42​
2024​
44.48​
60.26​
2025​
48.32​
66.95​
2026​
53.73​
What do the numbers in this table represent? What are the units? The middle column, labeled "mpg require" would appear to be years....
 

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112 Posts
Discussion Starter · #9 ·
What do the numbers in this table represent? What are the units? The middle column, labeled "mpg require" would appear to be years....
The governments mpg requirements for certain years according to CAFE as modified by the Biden administration. The left column is for cars and the right column is for SUVs. I know the numbers seem way to high to be realistic because there is some weird calculation they use to come up with the CAFE statistic. But look how rapidly they accelerate after 2023.

The rapid increse in regulatory requirements means that Subaru will not be able to sustain the 1% to 2% EV sales past 2025 that they will probably get in 2022.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 · (Edited)
Let's replace "some" with "insignificant"
Agreed. I will use that word from now on. But even insignificant at least shows a willingness to shift production.

Let's briefly look at the current production. In the first quarter of 2022 we have the following statistics
  • 72,314 Production in Lafayette Indiana where first Legacy rolled off line in September 1989
  • 67,356 Outback (38955), Ascent (14456), Impreza (7520), Legacy (6425) sales in US
  • 66,580 Crosstrek(39953), Forester(23957), WRX (1732), BRZ (938) sales in US
Indiana presumably also serves the Canadian market. Production at Indiana is supposed to be Ascent, Outback, Legacy, Impreza vehicles only.

So the bottom line is Subaru makes about half of their US vehicle sales in the US and half in Japan. Many of their Asian competitors produce the majority of vehicles that are sold in North America in either the US, Canada, or Mexico.

The Forester and Crosstrek are very popular in the US. Can you see Subaru expanding their plant in Lafayette to accomodate them? The WRX is very popular in the US but it has global clients so I could imagine they would want to keep production solely in Japan.

Toyota operates 14 plants in North America, including Canada and Mexico. Could you see Subaru shifting some production to a shared facility with Toyota now that they are part of the Toyota Automotive Group?
 

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Agreed. I will use that word from now on. But even insignificant at least shows a willingness to shift production.

Let's briefly look at the current production. In the first quarter of 2022 we have the following statistics
  • 72,314 Production in Lafayette Indiana where first Legacy rolled off line in September 1989
  • 67,356 Outback (38955), Ascent (14456), Impreza (7520), Legacy (6425) sales in US
  • 66,580 Crosstrek(39953), Forester(23957), WRX (1732), BRZ (938) sales in US
Indiana presumably also serves the Canadian market. Production at Indiana is supposed to be Ascent, Outback, Legacy, Impreza vehicles only.

So the bottom line is Subaru makes about half of their US vehicle sales in the US and half in Japan. Many of their Asian competitors produce the majority of vehicles that are sold in North America in either the US, Canada, or Mexico.

The Forester and Crosstrek are very popular in the US. Can you see Subaru expanding their plant in Lafayette to accomodate them? The WRX is very popular in the US but it has global clients so I could imagine they would want to keep production solely in Japan.

Toyota operates 14 plants in North America, including Canada and Mexico. Could you see Subaru shifting some production to a shared facility with Toyota now that they are part of the Toyota Automotive Group?
Here you go. Ask and you shall receive…

And it looks like they’re planning to build batteries here, too, not just assemble EVs.
”Also making the news recently was Toyota’s announcement of building a $1.29 billion battery plant in North Carolina. Toyota’s mission is to offer many more EV options across its entire lineup of electric vehicles. It’s luxury brand of Lexus vehicles is also following suit and will be offering more electric vehicles in the future to reach its goals. “
 

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Here you go. Ask and you shall receive…

And it looks like they’re planning to build batteries here, too, not just assemble EVs.
”Also making the news recently was Toyota’s announcement of building a $1.29 billion battery plant in North Carolina. Toyota’s mission is to offer many more EV options across its entire lineup of electric vehicles. It’s luxury brand of Lexus vehicles is also following suit and will be offering more electric vehicles in the future to reach its goals. “
I live in NC and Vinfast is planning to build a massive EV assembly plant here as well.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 · (Edited)
One current advantage Subaru has in manufacturing in Japan vs the US: the Yen is at a 20 year low with 131 Yen to the US dollar.
Subaru published their year end results for fiscal year ending 31 March 2022 and projections for 2023. The drop was not as bad as might have been expected (only 3% in JPY and 8% in USD) but keep in mind that last year was deeply affected by pandemic.

Projections are optimistic for FYE2023 with revenue projected at¥3,500 billion which would beat the all time record high of ¥3,405 billion for FYE2018. But if you can't be optimistic at the beginning of the year, then when can you be optimistic?

Exchange Rate used for projection is 120 JPY/USD
Fiscal year end​
2021​
2022​
2023​
Revenue (billions JPY)​
¥2,830​
¥2,745​
¥3,500​
Operating profit​
¥103​
¥91​
¥200​
Overseas (unit sales)​
758,000​
645,000​
826,000​
Japan (unit sales)​
102,000​
89,000​
115,000​
Subaru Exchange Rate ¥/US$​
106​
112​
120​
Revenue (billions USD)​
$26.70​
$24.50​
$29.17​
 

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Where are you getting this incorrect info?

Ioniq 5s are made in the Korea which is the bulk of Hyundia's EV production.

EV6s are made in Korea too but Tellurides are made in Georgia.
Hyundai just announced plans to build a fairly sizeable factory outside Altanta with capacity for 300k EVs a year starting in 2025, so maybe Google before you chew someone out for "incorrect info"?
 

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Aside from trying to find areas with the lowest cost of living for your workers, by assembling in the US (components are made all over the world and most factories don't actually manufacture the vehicles) the cost savings for manufacturers really comes from the huge savings in shipping charges.
 

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I suspect that's very true, jg. Shipping components and assemblies in bulk is much more efficient than shipping whole vehicles, regardless of where the actual final manufacturing point is.
 

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Hyundai just announced plans to build a fairly sizeable factory outside Altanta with capacity for 300k EVs a year starting in 2025, so maybe Google before you chew someone out for "incorrect info"?
How can I predict the future? The original post was May 6th. The announcement happened May 20th. Hyundai to open auto plant, EV battery factory in Bryan County in 2025

Thanks for chewing me out for not having a crystal ball.
 
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