[frankamartin]

Subaru Global Net Sales Revenue by fiscal year (ends 31 March) has been in a rut for about 6 years after 4 years of steady growth.


I consider the BRZ / GR86 to be a minor partnership which resulted in an average of 518 BRZ sales per month in the US over the first 60 months. Subaru's stated expectation prior to introduction to be 500/month for the US. I think most people are expecting Solterra to outsell the BRZ, eventually, but as to when that will happen remains to be seen. Subaru Legacy sales in the US averaged 2270 per month in 2021. Imprezas averaged 3636 per month and WRXs averaged 1765 per month.

Do you envision Subaru's joining the Toyota Motors Automotive Group (Feb 2020), the acquisition of 20% of the company by Toyota, and their partnership on Solterra to be the first step in fundamental changes in the company? Do you think they will increase Subaru presence in Europe for example, or will the European sales all go to the bZ4X? The same question goes to sales in China, Southeast Asia, or even Latin America.

In the US, many General Motors dealers own dealership that sell up to three of GM brands, Chevy, GM and Buick (Cadillac still requires a seperate dealership which could be the same owner across the street). Could you imagine being able to order your choice of a Solterra or a bZ4X at a Toyota dealership? Toyota has over 3X as many dealers in California as Subaru, as Subaru always excelled in Mountain states in New England and in Rockies.

 

[JIm_in_PA]

I think most people are expecting Solterra to outsell the BRZ,

That's a logical conclusion given the BRZ is an enthusiast vehicle with very narrow appeal while the Solterra is the first of what will likely be a full lineup of mainstream EV offerings.

 

[frankamartin]

That's a logical conclusion given the BRZ is an enthusiast vehicle with very narrow appeal while the Solterra is the first of what will likely be a full lineup of mainstream EV offerings.

Sales in the US in 2021 per month

• 12,885 Outback
• 12,894 Forester
• 10,622 Crosstrek
• 4,998 Ascent
• 2,899 Impreza
• 1,897 Legacy
• 2,262 WRX/STI
• 193 BRZ

Well the question is will they be on the order of Impreza and Legacy or on the order of Ascent sales.

 

[JIm_in_PA]

Initially, I'll guess the former, but hopefully that will grow. That's my gut feeling. It will be interesting to see what Subaru thinks about that for sure.

 

[frankamartin]

Well here is the article where I got the BRZ sales goals from
By Patrick Rall Apr 3 2012 Subaru BRZ selling well beyond company expectations

The Subaru BRZ officially went on sale on February 3rd with the expectation of moving around 450 units per month but after two months on the market, Subaru has sold around 3,600 examples of the BRZ. Based on the company’s early estimates, there would be roughly 900 BRZ coupes sold through the first two months but with roughly 3,600 units sold through the first two months – the BRZ is besting company goals by better than 4 times.

The Japanese automaker only plans to sell around 500 BRZ coupes each month in the US with an annual goal of 6,000 units sold.

The BRZ went on sale in the US roughly 6 weeks after that article was published, so it seems like a legitimate prediction.

On another forum I referred to the BRZ as "not very successful" and someone got on my case and said I didn't know what corporate expectations were for the vehicle. So for the first 60 months BRZ sales in the US averaged 518 per month, and for the next 48 months they averaged 266 per month. Subaru actually stopped production 98 months after they went on sale in the US, so 60+48 = 108 months which is 10 months after they stopped production.

I don't know if they estimate low in order to save embaressment, but it does make me wonder if they will release an estimate for the Solterra.

 

[JIm_in_PA]

Yes, hard to say if they will show their expectations...that can sometimes poison the well. But I really do think that sales figures for Solterra will be well north of BRZ simply because it's more of a mainstream oriented vehicle, even though it's the first EV. There's a lot of interest in EVs and that continues to build. Time will tell. I know I will be buying one, barring any unforeseen circumstances, in a couple of years to replace our MY20 Forester as our "ratting around" vehicle. Charging at home is no issue and it will be a nice step for us, especially now that we live in town and use the smaller vehicle the most, leaving my Ascent for "big jobs".

 

[frankamartin]

2,027,786 Toyota Sales in 2021 in US
304,475 Lexus Sales in 2021 in US
583,810 Subaru Sales in 2021 in US

I think there are more than twice as many Toyota dealers in the US as Subaru dealers, particularly in California. Perhaps the potential Solterra buyer that is closer to a Toyota dealership will drive there and sample the bZ4x and use that as a test ride before purchasing the Solterra. I am certainly hoping the Solterra is not priced higher than AWD version of the bZ4x.

As I understand it, the Solterra will be produced in a Toyota factory. I don't know what that will mean if there still is a parts shortage.

 

[JIm_in_PA]

As I understand it, the Solterra will be produced in a Toyota factory.

That is correct and is mentioned here in the Solterra forum. The initial production of the three variantes (Toyota, Lexus, Subaru) will come out of a Toyota factory. Toyota owns a big chunk of Subaru and there already are collaborations.

 

[frankamartin]

Subaru CEO says there’s no demand for electric vehicles in the US after poor sales for their PHEV Crosstrek January 21, 2020 After averaging unit sales of about 300 per month for their plug-in hybrid Crosstrek SUV (27 km on the electric motor), Subaru Corp. CEO Tomomi Nakamura said he doesn’t see much evidence that Americans are ready to buy electric vehicles. Given the lackluster sales figures, Subaru is now projecting a much lower rate of EV market growth over the next decade. With an original goal of having at least 40% of its global sales be electric or hybrid-electric by 2030, Subaru’s chief technology officer, Tetsuo Onuki, say EV’s are going to be “quite expensive” into the future and doesn’t believe the market is going to turn all-electric in the near future.

See everytime I think 4000 per month after a few months, I read something like the above quote (I realize it is two years old). But the Crosstrek Hybrid Starting at $35,645 (17 mile electric range), compared to the Crosstrek Starting at $22,445 and I think I am surprised that they are selling 300 per month with a $13,200 difference in price from the base model,

I hope that CEO Nakamura is not gaging the success of the Solterra by the success of the Crosstrek hybrid.

 

[JIm_in_PA]

The Crosstrek hybrid was very limited production and yes, it was way overpriced, IMHO. It's good you pointed out the date of the statement, because honestly, the market interest in EVs is evolving very quickly at this point. Things have changed.

 

[frankamartin]

The explosive growth in Subaru sales for four year period didn't end in Northern America (US and Canada), but globally the growth had subsided before the pandemic hit in March-April 2020. Of course the pandemic and subsequent chip shortage will knock sales back even further.

I am not trying to be critical because it is a very competitive business and you could do a lot worse than holding your own. However, the Solterra may represent a major rejuvenation of the company particularly in Europe. The percentages in the table below are averages per year for the multi year periods. The pandemic year is shown isolated. Yasuyuki Yoshinaga became Subaru's President in June 2011, and CEO in June 2012. He resigned in June 2018 over a scandal involving domestic inspection procedures. Tomomi Nakamura became CEO in 2018.

Mar 31, 2010​	Mar 31, 2012​	Mar 31, 2016​	Mar 31, 2020​	Begin​
Mar 31, 2012​	Mar 31, 2016​	Mar 31, 2020​	Mar 31, 2021​	End​
-2.2%​	5.0%​	-1.4%​	-13.0%​	Japan​
6.9%​	31.2%​	3.5%​	-13.7%​	Northern Amer.​
3.9%​	14.1%​	-9.0%​	-30.6%​	Other Regions​
3.0%​	20.8%​	0.9%​	-15.4%​	Global Sales​

Northern America sales growth tripled over the first four year period (1+31.2%)^4 ~ 300%.

Subaru revenue is 17.6% from Japan, 73.6% from Northern America, and 8.8% from elsewhere in most recent fiscal year. Toyota is a much more global company with sales revenue 31.8% from Japan, 34.8% from Northern America, and 33.4% from elsewhere.

 

[frankamartin]

The Crosstrek hybrid was very limited production and yes, it was way overpriced, IMHO. It's good you pointed out the date of the statement, because honestly, the market interest in EVs is evolving very quickly at this point. Things have changed.

Jan 9, 2020 Toyota’s slow start in the BEV arena This article states that Toyota only intends to produce 30,000 BEVs in the year 2021. That is a fairly paltry goal, and I assume it has been adjusted in the last two years.

I believe that the Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota) announced Toyota bZ4X on April 19 2021.

 

[JIm_in_PA]

I'm sure they did have to adjust it since 2021 is behind us...

 

[frankamartin]

I'm sure they did have to adjust it since 2021 is behind us...

But do you know how many Battery Electric Vehicles Toyota sold in 2021? Obviously there was none in the US or Canada. The CH-R EV and IZOA EV went on sale in April 2020 and May 2020 respectively in China, but Nikkei reported in October 2020 that Toyota had only sold less than 2,000 units, Toyota introduced theC+ pod in late 2020, a 2-seater car with an estimated range of 100 kilometres (62 mi) and a top speed of 60 kilometres per hour (37 mph).

According to Toyota's global website, BEV sales were only 12,408 in 2021.

 

[Commodore]

Good info!

Anyone have Solterra order figures (for first 24 hours.)

 

[frankamartin]

Presumably Subaru now received the full 6000 orders for the solterra as they are not taking any more for 2022. Subaru has also stopped taking orders for the 2022 BRZ and they have just stopped taking orders for the 2022 Impreza.
There has been no public comment on the Legacy but presumably they would rather use limited production resources on the SUVs.

2021 sales of the Subaru cars were

Impreza​	34,791​
WRX​	27,141​
Legacy​	22,766​

As the MSRP of the 2022 WRX is nearly as high as the 2022 Ascent, presumably Subaru wants to get as many orders for the WRX as possible.

WRX​	​	$29,105​	​
WRX​	Premium​	$31,605​	​
WRX​	Limited​	$35,995​	​
WRX​	GT​	$41,895​	​
​	​	​	​
Ascent​	​	$32,295​	$3,190​
Ascent​	Premium​	$34,795​	$3,190​
Ascent​	Limited​	$39,595​	$3,600​
Ascent​	Touring​	$45,445​	$3,550​
Ascent​	Onyx​	$37,995​	​

Looking at past sales figures there is a lot of credibility to the claim that if Subaru only sold SUVs they still couldn't meet demand.

• 574,467: 2019 four SUV model sales + 125,650 (Impreza, Legacy, WRX and BRZ)
• 517,629: 2020 four SUV model sales + 94,313 (Impreza, Legacy, WRX and BRZ)
• 496,792: 2021 four SUV model sales + 87,018 (Impreza, Legacy, WRX and BRZ)

Back in 2012 Subaru was 60% / 40% SUV/car. But today Subaru is basically an SUV company with a sideline in cars.